Brent to stay rangebound until recession is apparent or a catalyst pushes markets higher – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank see little reason for Oil markets to break either way until the macro fears are alleviated or a recession kicks off.

Sideways market until sentiment changes

“Brent saw recent strength up to $78/bbl from positive demand data, but we are not ready to make a full bullish call in the short term until the wider macro mess is resolved. Another bank failure could send Brent to retest the key $70/bbl mark, and financial contagion would push prices into the $65-$70/bbl range.” 

“Right now, we see OPEC+ staying the course and continuing the April cuts of 1.6m bpd. The surprise April cut boosted prices by $5-$7 for about three weeks. A second cut would display their fears more openly and indicates greater weakness; we construe a second cut as a bearish signal unless the cuts are extremely substantive.” 

“For now, Brent and WTI will continue their sideways trends.”