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28 May 2013
Flash: USD/JPY eyes critical weekly above 100.00 for confirmation – ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the ANZ Research Team, “The potential for USD/JPY gains through 105.60 to the 110.00-111.75 area persists, though interim support (“buy” at 101.55, stops 99.45) held, but vulnerabilities have increased.“
In addition, the retracement risk (note the momentum roll and possible steep rising wedge – blue dashed-lines) should not be ignored, but this could merely lead to a pause, not a break, in trend (as seen in mid/late-January).
Concerns over divergence and potential corrections were heightened by last week’s “outside” week (higher high, lower low, close below previous week’s low). However, the steep uptrend seen since October remains in play with targets of 105.60 (61.8% of range since 2008) and 111.50-75 (50% of range since 1998) still live. A weekly close below 100 could undermine the uptrend.
In addition, the retracement risk (note the momentum roll and possible steep rising wedge – blue dashed-lines) should not be ignored, but this could merely lead to a pause, not a break, in trend (as seen in mid/late-January).
Concerns over divergence and potential corrections were heightened by last week’s “outside” week (higher high, lower low, close below previous week’s low). However, the steep uptrend seen since October remains in play with targets of 105.60 (61.8% of range since 2008) and 111.50-75 (50% of range since 1998) still live. A weekly close below 100 could undermine the uptrend.