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12 Mar 2015
USD/CAD capped near 1.28 – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, sees medium-term risks for CAD from a probable further downside to oil prices, but expects 1.28 to cap the upside for USD/CAD presently.
Key Quotes
“USDCAD struggled to make any impression on 1.28 yesterday and this morning’s dip in funds to the high 1.26s perpetuates the Q1 consolidation range trade for a little longer.”
“Another big build in yesterday’s oil inventory data renewed pressure on crude but there has been little follow-through and WTI is trading firmer on the day so far; we still see downside risks to prices in the near-to-medium term though and weaker crude still risks spilling over into the broader economy—clearly CAD negatives in the medium-term.”
“On the charts, today’s drop in USDCAD does not look too technically painful in the short run but it does undercut short-term bull momentum and, depending on the run of US/Canada data over the next day or so, may mean that the market remains capped below 1.28 for a little longer.”
“Weakness below support in the upper 1.26s could allow for another big figure’s worth of softness to come through near-term—and that would put spot more in line with our current fundamental FV assessment which stands at 1.2533 today.”
Key Quotes
“USDCAD struggled to make any impression on 1.28 yesterday and this morning’s dip in funds to the high 1.26s perpetuates the Q1 consolidation range trade for a little longer.”
“Another big build in yesterday’s oil inventory data renewed pressure on crude but there has been little follow-through and WTI is trading firmer on the day so far; we still see downside risks to prices in the near-to-medium term though and weaker crude still risks spilling over into the broader economy—clearly CAD negatives in the medium-term.”
“On the charts, today’s drop in USDCAD does not look too technically painful in the short run but it does undercut short-term bull momentum and, depending on the run of US/Canada data over the next day or so, may mean that the market remains capped below 1.28 for a little longer.”
“Weakness below support in the upper 1.26s could allow for another big figure’s worth of softness to come through near-term—and that would put spot more in line with our current fundamental FV assessment which stands at 1.2533 today.”