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27 Mar 2015
Key events ahead: US Q4 GDP and Yellen’s speech – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team previews the key data release and events ahead in the US, anticipating US Q4 GDP to move slightly higher at 2.4% qoq.
Key Quotes
“Data-wise, we see the next estimate of US Q4 GDP, expected slightly higher at 2.4% QoQ annualized – though concern is already now on how low Q1 is going to be (apart from at the Fed, apparently).”
“We also have final March Michigan consumer sentiment, which is seen slightly higher than the surprisingly-weak initial reading.”
“However, the highlight will no doubt be Janet Yellen speaking on US monetary policy at a conference titled “The New Normal for Monetary Policy”: this seems a perfect opportunity for Yellen to make clear what that actually means given all the recent Fed flip-flopping.”
“In short, will she strike a dovish tone, over-ruling the hawkishness of the likes of Bullard, et al., or will she join them and say, “The new normal for monetary policy?”.”
“On balance, she’s probably going to be middle of the road, suggesting that, yes, US rates will rise eventually, as to do otherwise is for the FOMC itself to say “This is a recovery?”; but she will likely also underline that even when rates do rise there’s no need to hurry.”
Key Quotes
“Data-wise, we see the next estimate of US Q4 GDP, expected slightly higher at 2.4% QoQ annualized – though concern is already now on how low Q1 is going to be (apart from at the Fed, apparently).”
“We also have final March Michigan consumer sentiment, which is seen slightly higher than the surprisingly-weak initial reading.”
“However, the highlight will no doubt be Janet Yellen speaking on US monetary policy at a conference titled “The New Normal for Monetary Policy”: this seems a perfect opportunity for Yellen to make clear what that actually means given all the recent Fed flip-flopping.”
“In short, will she strike a dovish tone, over-ruling the hawkishness of the likes of Bullard, et al., or will she join them and say, “The new normal for monetary policy?”.”
“On balance, she’s probably going to be middle of the road, suggesting that, yes, US rates will rise eventually, as to do otherwise is for the FOMC itself to say “This is a recovery?”; but she will likely also underline that even when rates do rise there’s no need to hurry.”