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15 Apr 2015
ECB optimistic on impact of QE, no change to EUR/USD bearish view – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities, comments on the ECB policy meeting, and further notes that there is no change to TD’s EUR/USD Q3 2015 parity target.
Key Quotes
“The ECB continues to be optimistic on the impact of its measures and likes the improvement it is seeing in the data and lending surveys, but not enough to significantly shift their overall message.”
“There was no mention of a review to broaden the assets eligible for SSA purchases, but this may still follow in the non-policy meeting later this month.”
“Nothing here changes our view that bunds should continue to trade in a range capped at around 30bps for the next 3-6 months and EURUSD should trade below parity by 2015Q3.”
“The ECB’s APP has provided a significant period of a steady, positive monetary stimulus into the Eurozone economy through end-2016, but one where we are hesitant to incorporate the full upside risks into our forecasts given the lack of structural reforms that have been delivered and are needed in order to increase potential growth.”
Key Quotes
“The ECB continues to be optimistic on the impact of its measures and likes the improvement it is seeing in the data and lending surveys, but not enough to significantly shift their overall message.”
“There was no mention of a review to broaden the assets eligible for SSA purchases, but this may still follow in the non-policy meeting later this month.”
“Nothing here changes our view that bunds should continue to trade in a range capped at around 30bps for the next 3-6 months and EURUSD should trade below parity by 2015Q3.”
“The ECB’s APP has provided a significant period of a steady, positive monetary stimulus into the Eurozone economy through end-2016, but one where we are hesitant to incorporate the full upside risks into our forecasts given the lack of structural reforms that have been delivered and are needed in order to increase potential growth.”