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5 May 2015
April non-mfg ISM rises to 57.8, but employment index little changed - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing today’s US data release, Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, mentions that it would take a month of two for payrolls to return to their previous trend.
Key Quotes
“This week’s trickle of payrolls relevant data has started, with the April non-manufacturing ISM. The headline index was up to 57.8, from 56.5 in March, which helps to promote the idea of a post-soft-patch bounce, but the employment index rose only fractionally to 56.7 from 56.6.”
“This modest increase is in line with our sub-consensus 180K April payrolls forecast (up from 126K in March), premised on the idea that the soft-patch may be over, but the labour market is a lagging indicator, so it may take a month or two more before the payrolls increases return to their previous trend.”
“If indeed this is the case on Friday and payrolls comes in under 200K (consensus is for a 230K rise), then it is a further argument for delaying the first rate hike until after June.”
“That said, with Treasury yields driven by the backwash from the Eurozone market, this may have less relevance for Treasuries than whatever Bunds are doing on Friday.”
Key Quotes
“This week’s trickle of payrolls relevant data has started, with the April non-manufacturing ISM. The headline index was up to 57.8, from 56.5 in March, which helps to promote the idea of a post-soft-patch bounce, but the employment index rose only fractionally to 56.7 from 56.6.”
“This modest increase is in line with our sub-consensus 180K April payrolls forecast (up from 126K in March), premised on the idea that the soft-patch may be over, but the labour market is a lagging indicator, so it may take a month or two more before the payrolls increases return to their previous trend.”
“If indeed this is the case on Friday and payrolls comes in under 200K (consensus is for a 230K rise), then it is a further argument for delaying the first rate hike until after June.”
“That said, with Treasury yields driven by the backwash from the Eurozone market, this may have less relevance for Treasuries than whatever Bunds are doing on Friday.”