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4 Jun 2015
AUD/NZD: stay short for 1.0340 – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Australian April retail sales and trade balance data disappointing the markets and easing expectations from the RBNZ seen as overpriced, the BNP Paribas teams prefers going short on AUD/NZD, targeting 1.0340 levels.
Key Quotes
“Both the retail sales and trade balance data from Australia overnight disappointed against market expectations. Retail sales were flat in April, versus expectations for a 0.3% rise. The prior release was also revised lower by 0.1pp to 0.2%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit in April widened to AUD 3.89bn, the largest deficit on record. The dramatic widening was driven by a combination of both falling exports (driven partly by declines of the prices of Australia’s commodity exports) and rising imports (driven partly by rising fuel costs).”
“Following a rebound over the past week, AUDNZD is now poised to resume a downward trend.”
“The next key event will be the RBNZ policy meeting on 10 June where we view that the market is overpricing a the likelihood of a rate cut (the market is pricing a 50% probability).”
“We remain short from 1.0780 targeting 1.0340.”
Key Quotes
“Both the retail sales and trade balance data from Australia overnight disappointed against market expectations. Retail sales were flat in April, versus expectations for a 0.3% rise. The prior release was also revised lower by 0.1pp to 0.2%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit in April widened to AUD 3.89bn, the largest deficit on record. The dramatic widening was driven by a combination of both falling exports (driven partly by declines of the prices of Australia’s commodity exports) and rising imports (driven partly by rising fuel costs).”
“Following a rebound over the past week, AUDNZD is now poised to resume a downward trend.”
“The next key event will be the RBNZ policy meeting on 10 June where we view that the market is overpricing a the likelihood of a rate cut (the market is pricing a 50% probability).”
“We remain short from 1.0780 targeting 1.0340.”