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18 Sep 2013
Flash: NZ current account eyed - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - ANZ Economists are expecting Q2 current account deficit in New Zealand of about $1.7bn in Q2, with the yearly deficit down to 4.7% of GDP. In sa terms this equates to a March QoQ deficit of about $2.5bn vs a $2.2bn in Q1.
Key Quotes
"We expect the goods trade position to improve to a $1.4bn surplus, largely reflecting seasonal rises in merchandise export values. Partly offsetting this will be a quarterly services deficit of around $250m, reflecting seasonal rises in overseas departures and falls in overseas visitor numbers."
"Offsetting the quarterly trade surplus will be a large investment income deficit ($2.7bn), a consequence of our weak national balance sheet. Investment credits are expected to lift modestly due to rising overseas equity values held by resident entities."
"Climbing investment income debits – to around $4bn – will partly offset this, given increases in domestic equities and higher debt-servicing costs. Bank Disclosure Statements also showed a further Q2 lift in bank profitability, although we expect a good chunk of this to be reinvested. Profitability elsewhere is mixed, but is set to pick up as the expansion strengthens."
Key Quotes
"We expect the goods trade position to improve to a $1.4bn surplus, largely reflecting seasonal rises in merchandise export values. Partly offsetting this will be a quarterly services deficit of around $250m, reflecting seasonal rises in overseas departures and falls in overseas visitor numbers."
"Offsetting the quarterly trade surplus will be a large investment income deficit ($2.7bn), a consequence of our weak national balance sheet. Investment credits are expected to lift modestly due to rising overseas equity values held by resident entities."
"Climbing investment income debits – to around $4bn – will partly offset this, given increases in domestic equities and higher debt-servicing costs. Bank Disclosure Statements also showed a further Q2 lift in bank profitability, although we expect a good chunk of this to be reinvested. Profitability elsewhere is mixed, but is set to pick up as the expansion strengthens."