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3 Sep 2015
NZD/USD up through hourly 20/50 SMA's
FXStreet (Guatemala) - A significant run in NZD/USD to the upside was made in early Asia, rising through the hourly 20 and 50 SMA from 0.6340 the low and broke yesterday's Asian highs of 0.6367.
Risk appears to be on, with the commodity currencies on the up and the Yen weakening across the board. S&P futures are in the green, +0.24%, after a positive close on Wall Street. However, there is and air of dovishness around the Fed for this month, bolstering US equities that could be supportung the dollar short - medium term evetually but potentially problematic for the greenback longer term if yeilds evetually decline. Analysts at Rabobank explained that the developments in August are not likely to have boosted the Fed's confidence in the inflation outlook.
There were some headline on Bloomberg in respect to an interview with Fonterra's Managing Director Global Ingredients, Kevin Wickham in New Zealand's 'Rural News', who said that demand should pick up as inventories deplete, but may take several months to do so, attracting a slight bid in the bird. Yesterday, the Global dairy trade index rose +10.9%, up for the 2nd consecutive auction, but the analysts at TD Securities explained that, again, this was due to Fonterra cutting supply.
Nonfarm Payrolls week; outlook solid
In the US session, the ADP survey, being an accurate US Nonfarm Payrolls directional indicator, suggested that the numbers are unlikely 215K figure printed last month. The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). Nonfarm Payrolls is released on Friday and analysts at TD Securities are expecting continued positive momentum, "We expect positive labor market momentum to continue in August, with the economy adding another 226K jobs following a decent 215K gain last month. With payroll gains set to exceed 200K for a 4th straight month (6 out of 8 months in 2015), reinforcing the current positive narrative on labor market activity."
NZD/USD, technically, bears are in control
While below the 0.6708 downtrend of the 21st August and the 30 minute 200 SMA that capped last week's minor recovery to 0.6505 which is moving lower today, at 0.6397, NZD is in the hands of the bears. A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910.
Risk appears to be on, with the commodity currencies on the up and the Yen weakening across the board. S&P futures are in the green, +0.24%, after a positive close on Wall Street. However, there is and air of dovishness around the Fed for this month, bolstering US equities that could be supportung the dollar short - medium term evetually but potentially problematic for the greenback longer term if yeilds evetually decline. Analysts at Rabobank explained that the developments in August are not likely to have boosted the Fed's confidence in the inflation outlook.
There were some headline on Bloomberg in respect to an interview with Fonterra's Managing Director Global Ingredients, Kevin Wickham in New Zealand's 'Rural News', who said that demand should pick up as inventories deplete, but may take several months to do so, attracting a slight bid in the bird. Yesterday, the Global dairy trade index rose +10.9%, up for the 2nd consecutive auction, but the analysts at TD Securities explained that, again, this was due to Fonterra cutting supply.
Nonfarm Payrolls week; outlook solid
In the US session, the ADP survey, being an accurate US Nonfarm Payrolls directional indicator, suggested that the numbers are unlikely 215K figure printed last month. The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). Nonfarm Payrolls is released on Friday and analysts at TD Securities are expecting continued positive momentum, "We expect positive labor market momentum to continue in August, with the economy adding another 226K jobs following a decent 215K gain last month. With payroll gains set to exceed 200K for a 4th straight month (6 out of 8 months in 2015), reinforcing the current positive narrative on labor market activity."
NZD/USD, technically, bears are in control
While below the 0.6708 downtrend of the 21st August and the 30 minute 200 SMA that capped last week's minor recovery to 0.6505 which is moving lower today, at 0.6397, NZD is in the hands of the bears. A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910.