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19 Sep 2013
USD/CHF grinds slowly below 0.9100
FXstreet.com (Athens)- The USD/CHF is steadily trading downwards, due to greenback vulnerability across the board, as well as on solid Switzerland data.
With the market still sensitive to fundamentals following Wednesday’s volatility, the “Swissie” takes absolute advantage of the both “risk-on” sentiment, alongside with boosted data on behalf of Switzerland. Solid SECO data released earlier, with the trade balance of Switzerland for August narrowed to +1.85B versus +1.80B expected. What’s more, the Swiss Government upgraded 2014 GDP outlook to 2.3% versus 2.1% forecast in June. Needless to say, it seems that the Swiss franc could take advantage with important event risk of its own. With financial stability proving more convincing, it’s probable that the “swissie” could move even higher, dragging the pair downwards. Last but not least, traders should never forget the heavy negative correlation between the EUR/USD and USD/CHF, therefore taken for granted that the EUR/USD made a “mini” rally post FOMC minutes, the downward pressure on USD/CHF was anything, but out-of-the blue.
Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, mentions that “the pair has sold off to the 2012-2013 uptrend.USD/CHF has crashed lower to the 2012-2013 support line lies at .9092. Currently our favoured view is for losses to hold this uptrend, however we would need to see a rapid bounce back above the .9146 August low just to alleviate immediate downside pressure and signal a return to .9261 – the 23.6% retracement of the move down from July. Failure to hold over .9090 will see USD?CHF sell off to the .9023 2013 low and then the .8931 2012 low.”
With the market still sensitive to fundamentals following Wednesday’s volatility, the “Swissie” takes absolute advantage of the both “risk-on” sentiment, alongside with boosted data on behalf of Switzerland. Solid SECO data released earlier, with the trade balance of Switzerland for August narrowed to +1.85B versus +1.80B expected. What’s more, the Swiss Government upgraded 2014 GDP outlook to 2.3% versus 2.1% forecast in June. Needless to say, it seems that the Swiss franc could take advantage with important event risk of its own. With financial stability proving more convincing, it’s probable that the “swissie” could move even higher, dragging the pair downwards. Last but not least, traders should never forget the heavy negative correlation between the EUR/USD and USD/CHF, therefore taken for granted that the EUR/USD made a “mini” rally post FOMC minutes, the downward pressure on USD/CHF was anything, but out-of-the blue.
Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, mentions that “the pair has sold off to the 2012-2013 uptrend.USD/CHF has crashed lower to the 2012-2013 support line lies at .9092. Currently our favoured view is for losses to hold this uptrend, however we would need to see a rapid bounce back above the .9146 August low just to alleviate immediate downside pressure and signal a return to .9261 – the 23.6% retracement of the move down from July. Failure to hold over .9090 will see USD?CHF sell off to the .9023 2013 low and then the .8931 2012 low.”