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3 Nov 2015
RBA: "Place ya bets, place ya bets..." - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that next up today all the action is in Australia, where it’s blazing sunshine, ladies in big hats, lads who have had a few too many beers thinking they are clever, witty banter, a photo finish, and a few lucky punters making money while many lose their shirts. And that’s just the RBA meeting.
See here for RBA interest rates preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?
Key Quotes:
"Shortly afterwards we will see the Melbourne Cup, which may also gather some interest. (The clear favourite is ‘Fame Game’ while I am keeping my fingers crossed for ‘Excess Knowledge’: critics might retort I should be backing ‘Gust of Wind’.)"
"On the RBA front it is a very close call. I’m still firmly of the view that there are at least two more cuts in this cycle, and following the soft Q3 CPI number local banks had shifted in that direction markedly for this meeting. However, among the runners today only 12 of 29 are now expecting a 25bp cut to happen in November. Yet even if it doesn’t, the door is likely to be left wide open for a move in December; going back to the Fed-and-Christmas theme above, that would certainly continue the tradition of an Aussie Christmas being somewhat ‘upside down’ from that in the northern hemisphere."
"After the frolics Down Under we turn to US factory orders, expected -0.9% in September following a 1.7% drop in August: how that sits with a US economy close to seeing the output gap closed is an interesting question. We then have a speech from the ECB’s Draghi. For both the Fed and the ECB many are waiting the key question remains how much longer we have to wait to hear the words “...and they’re off!”"
See here for RBA interest rates preview: What to expect in AUD/USD?
Key Quotes:
"Shortly afterwards we will see the Melbourne Cup, which may also gather some interest. (The clear favourite is ‘Fame Game’ while I am keeping my fingers crossed for ‘Excess Knowledge’: critics might retort I should be backing ‘Gust of Wind’.)"
"On the RBA front it is a very close call. I’m still firmly of the view that there are at least two more cuts in this cycle, and following the soft Q3 CPI number local banks had shifted in that direction markedly for this meeting. However, among the runners today only 12 of 29 are now expecting a 25bp cut to happen in November. Yet even if it doesn’t, the door is likely to be left wide open for a move in December; going back to the Fed-and-Christmas theme above, that would certainly continue the tradition of an Aussie Christmas being somewhat ‘upside down’ from that in the northern hemisphere."
"After the frolics Down Under we turn to US factory orders, expected -0.9% in September following a 1.7% drop in August: how that sits with a US economy close to seeing the output gap closed is an interesting question. We then have a speech from the ECB’s Draghi. For both the Fed and the ECB many are waiting the key question remains how much longer we have to wait to hear the words “...and they’re off!”"