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1 Feb 2016
CFTC: Speculative investors ignore central bank cues - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Scotiabank, suggests that according to the IMM positioning data up to Tuesday Jan 26, speculative investors have ignored the central bank cues.
Key Quotes
• “IMM positioning data for the week through Tuesday suggest investors are less convinced by the USD’s bullish credentials these days. The aggregate bull bet on the USD dropped a little over USD 1bn to USD26.2bn, the smallest aggregate position reflected in this data series since mid-October.
• The changes are somewhat surprising, we think, considering the central bank policy backdrop. Firstly, investors failed to add significantly to their bearish bets on the EUR despite strong hints from ECB President Draghi that policy could be eased further. In fact, net bull bets on the EUR fell by USD1.4bn in the week, mainly a reflection of investors covering the EUR shorts. Speculative accounts continued to boost bull bets on the JPY, meanwhile, but (following BoJ easing and JPY selloff) we assume this trend will reverse next week. Net JPY longs rose USD1.2bn through Tuesday to the highest in four years.
• A second surprise in this week’s positioning is the lack of change in net CAD bear bets. In fact, the net positioning edged a little more CAD negative through Tuesday, despite last week’s unchanged BoC decision. Investors were happy to fade the initial CAD rebound at least but may be less inclined to do so now. Bearish CAD bets remain at a relative extreme, suggesting plenty of room for the CAD to bounce.
• The IMM’s net short GBP position was boosted by some 9k contracts this week (equalling to a USD850 mn boost) as expectations of BoE rate hike this year continue to fade.”
Key Quotes
• “IMM positioning data for the week through Tuesday suggest investors are less convinced by the USD’s bullish credentials these days. The aggregate bull bet on the USD dropped a little over USD 1bn to USD26.2bn, the smallest aggregate position reflected in this data series since mid-October.
• The changes are somewhat surprising, we think, considering the central bank policy backdrop. Firstly, investors failed to add significantly to their bearish bets on the EUR despite strong hints from ECB President Draghi that policy could be eased further. In fact, net bull bets on the EUR fell by USD1.4bn in the week, mainly a reflection of investors covering the EUR shorts. Speculative accounts continued to boost bull bets on the JPY, meanwhile, but (following BoJ easing and JPY selloff) we assume this trend will reverse next week. Net JPY longs rose USD1.2bn through Tuesday to the highest in four years.
• A second surprise in this week’s positioning is the lack of change in net CAD bear bets. In fact, the net positioning edged a little more CAD negative through Tuesday, despite last week’s unchanged BoC decision. Investors were happy to fade the initial CAD rebound at least but may be less inclined to do so now. Bearish CAD bets remain at a relative extreme, suggesting plenty of room for the CAD to bounce.
• The IMM’s net short GBP position was boosted by some 9k contracts this week (equalling to a USD850 mn boost) as expectations of BoE rate hike this year continue to fade.”