The ECB’s March inflation projection: Upside risks are materialising – TDS

James Rossiter, Senior Global Strategist at TDS, suggests that the ECB set a very low bar with their March inflation forecast—particularly for 2016.

Key Quotes

“We update the ECB’s recent macroeconomic projection with the latest oil price futures, and show that annual inflation should hit 0.4% in 2016 against their forecast of 0.1%.

Risks around the ECB’s inflation forecast in 2017 remain roughly balanced, with an upside risk emerging if TD Securities’ oil price forecast materialises.”