EUR/SEK downward pressure appears limited – Danske Bank

Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes the possibility of further appreciation of the krona remains shallow.

Key Quotes

“EUR/SEK has traded closely with risk sentiment recently ahead of the UK referendum”.

“The macro backdrop and fundamental valuation models remain highly supportive for the krona. However, as long as the Riksbank is guarding against ‘premature’ SEK appreciation, we think the downside potential in EUR/SEK is limited”.

“Also risk aversion in a broader sense (e.g. global growth and stock market valuation concerns) is SEK negative”.

“We see the pair trading basically sideways for the next couple of months. Our long-term forecasts are skewed to the downside, reflecting fundamentals. On balance, we raise our forecast path by 10 figures to 9.30 in 1M and 9.20, 9.10 and 9.00 in 3M, 6Mand 12M, respectively”.