EUR/USD: Down move still preferred, but ongoing consolidation looks elongated - SocGen

Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that after tentatively probing resistance near 1.1460/1.15, the EUR/USD appears to be consolidating lower short-term towards 1.08 but 1.06/1.05 still needs to be broken for the downtrend to resume in earnest.

Key Quotes

“Risk of a base formation as ongoing consolidation could be mirroring that back in 2000-2002 when the pair remained within a broad range and formed a 3-year base above the perennial upward channel. In this case, support at 1.06/1.05 has proved to be a floor for more than a year now, with an alternation of phases of a 6-month up move. However, a sustained move beyond 1.1875 will be decisive for a meaningful turnaround and lead to a double bottom confirmation.”