US: Expectations for ADP release are slightly lower than for payrolls – RBC CM

Adam Cole, Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the final clue on tomorrow’s US payrolls report is due today.

Key Quotes

“Although we generally play down the significance of the monthly ADP figures, the market does pay attention and expectations for tomorrow’s release will likely change accordingly. Expectations for today’s ADP release (160K) are slightly lower than for payrolls (180K). Our economists expect a well above consensus payrolls report, although the employment component of yesterday’s ISM non-manufacturing survey was relatively weak. This survey was almost exactly consistent with the payrolls release last month, but its track record was patchier earlier this year.”