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8 Jan 2014
Flash: EUR at risk from tomorrow's ECB meet - Scotiabank
FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, Senior FX Strategist at Scotiabank feels that should EUR/USD break below the weekly low, selling pressure could accelerate.
Key Quotes
“EUR is weak, down 0.2% since yesterday’s NA close but still trading within its recent range. A break below the ytd low of 1.3572 would accelerate selling pressure.”
“Today’s fundamental data was relatively strong with retail sales rising 1.4%m/m and 1.6%y/y; however unemployment stubbornly high at 12.1% combined with yesterday’s soft flash CPI estimate has increased speculation that the ECB will maintain a notably dovish tone (part of our base case for EUR weakness in 2014, particularly as the ECB faces a relatively strong EUR, disinflation and subdued credit dynamics).”
“Tomorrow’s ECB meeting and press conference is an important risk to EUR. Highlighting ongoing global imbalances, the German current account surplus rose to a fresh record high of €21.6bn as exports increased 0.2%m/m and imports fell –1.1%m/m driving the trade balance to €18.1bn.”
Key Quotes
“EUR is weak, down 0.2% since yesterday’s NA close but still trading within its recent range. A break below the ytd low of 1.3572 would accelerate selling pressure.”
“Today’s fundamental data was relatively strong with retail sales rising 1.4%m/m and 1.6%y/y; however unemployment stubbornly high at 12.1% combined with yesterday’s soft flash CPI estimate has increased speculation that the ECB will maintain a notably dovish tone (part of our base case for EUR weakness in 2014, particularly as the ECB faces a relatively strong EUR, disinflation and subdued credit dynamics).”
“Tomorrow’s ECB meeting and press conference is an important risk to EUR. Highlighting ongoing global imbalances, the German current account surplus rose to a fresh record high of €21.6bn as exports increased 0.2%m/m and imports fell –1.1%m/m driving the trade balance to €18.1bn.”