US: Housing starts likely down 7.8% in November - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura notes that surprising the market to the upside, housing starts jumped sharply in October, up 25.5% m-o-m to an annualized 1323k.

Key Quotes

“We think that the stronger-than-expected increase may likely be followed by some negative payback. In November, aggregate hours worked in residential construction increased modestly, implying upbeat residential construction activity. However, after considering the latest data on single and multi-family housing permits, we forecast that housing starts were down 7.8% m-o-m to an annualized 1220k in November (Consensus: -7.0% to an annualized 1230k). As for building permits, we forecast that this series was unchanged at an annualized rate of 1260k in November (Consensus: -1.6% to an annualized 1240k).”