EUR/USD challenges gravity near 1.0820, USD 'against the wall' before NFP

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0811, up +0.41% or 44-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0818 and low at 1.0761.

Today's economic docket had some positive readings to boost risk-on positions as the European Monetary Union reported the Producer Price Index (YoY) at 1.6% 'a better than expected' result vs. 1.3% consensus and previous 0.1% anemic figure. Furthermore, the US dollar seems to be 'against the wall' after yesterday's unchanged FOMC statement, therefore, market participants await and focus their attention on the next big event; NFP. 

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 5-weeks that EUR/USD pair had the best trading day at +1.13% (Jan.5) or 119-pips, and the worst at -0.80% (Jan.18) or (84)-pips.

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 1.0814 (100-DMA), then at 1.0870 (high Dec.8) and above that at 1.0950 (high Nov.10). While supports are aligned at 1.0620 (low Jan.30), later at 1.0453 (low Jan.11) and below that at 1.0339 (low Jan.1). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to change direction moving north. Therefore, there is evidence to expect further euro gains in the near term, after a 'surprise' in risk sentiment the upside is likely to be limited between the pair's 100-DMA and 200-DMA.

On the long-term view, the pair continues its previous uptrend from 1.0620, as of writing, trading 120-pips above 1.0706 (short-term 38.2%% Fib), then the next logical resistance 1.0820 (short-term 50.0%Fib) makes a perfect target for risk-on sentiment and above that at 1.0932 (short-term 61.8% Fib). To the downside, bears need an open and close below 1.0706 to increase the selling pressure to drag the pair lower, that would open doors towards 1.0566 (short-term 23.6% Fib) and 1.0339 (low Jan.1) would be the next critical support. 

A break below this level, would open doors and attract massive short-sellers towards parity. However, 1.0070 figures as the euro's last stand, those couple pips away from the round mark level make the difference between an all-time low-bottom vs. the 'infamous' parity.

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, but break above 1.0840 needed