NZD/USD failed 2nd attempt to break 0.7340; NFP 'nail in the coffin' to dollar weakness?

Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7302, up +0.31% or 22-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7337 and low at 0.7242.

Today's US economic docket, once again, stopped further Kiwi attacks to the 0.7340-50 region as the Initial Jobless Claims printed a positive figure at 246K below consensus and previous. On the other hand, Nonfarm Productivity added another 'better than expected' figure at 1.3%, which represents 0.3% above the 1.0% consensus.  

Moreover, the US dollar has been against the wall due to political uncertainty, but not because it lacks substance to fire back against the majors. Trump's devaluation rhetoric seemed to drill at the moment the robust recovery the US economy experienced over the last 12-months, but 'those words' may come to the end as tomorrow's NFP has the potential to move the needle in favor of the greenback.

Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 5-weeks that NZD/USD pair had the best trading day at +1.60% (Jan.17) or 115-pips, and the worst at -1.26% (Jan.18) or 89-pips. 

Statements questioning the validity of the numbers is a dollar-negative

Joyce's positive economic outlook

Econotimes reported, "Steven Joyce, New Zealand Finance Minister, said that he expects New Zealand economy to continue to perform well. The NZD being driven by weaker USD and the view that NZ's BOP deficit is not of concern. Standard and Poor’s earlier in the month affirmed New Zealand's AA foreign currency and AA+ local currency sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, saying the economy's solid growth looks set to continue and the Crown's fiscal management remains prudent."

Technical levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at 0.0.7349 (high Jan.29), then at 0.7402 (high Nov.6) and above that at 0.7480 (high Sep.4). While supports are aligned at 0.7220 (horizontal support), later at 0.7140 (horizontal support) and below that at 0.7046 (near 50-SMA). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems to start moving south from the overbought territory, therefore, there is evidence to expect further dollar gains in the medium term. 

On the long term view, if 0.6888 (low Jan. 2017) is in fact, the ongoing bottom for the first semester, then upside barriers are aligned at 0.7303 (short-term 61.8% Fib), to avoid 'false breakouts,' only an open and close above this level would open doors towards 0.7400 round figure. To the downside, supports are aligned at 0.7096 (short-term 50.0% Fib), then a dense support region between 0.6951 (reverse long-term 38.2% Fib) and 0.6888 (short-term 38.2% Fib). Furthermore, the question traders and investors need to weigh in mind; What catalyst will have the strength to bring US dollar back from the grave?; a 200K 'better than expected' NFP...  

NFP Preview: Will strong payrolls & wage growth help US dollar regain poise?