EUR/USD negative below 1.1214/20 – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair’s stance remain negative while below 1.1214/20.

Key Quotes

“The Euro is seeing a very minor rebound from the 1.1110 end of May low. So far this has been extremely tepid and while capped by the 20 day ma at 1.12014/20 will maintain a negative bias. Rallies will need to regain the 20 day ma at 1.1204 on a closing basis to re-focus attention on the topside and 1.1300. Below 1.1110 should trigger further losses to the 1.1070/23.6% retracement of the move higher this year and then the 55 day ma at 1.1026. Note intraday Elliot wave counts are positive and near term upside risks have increased”.

“Above 1.1300, the market has potential to reach the highs from mid 2016 circa 1.1429 and the two year resistance line at 1.1467, however we believe it will struggle here from a longer term perspective. We note the 78.6% retracement lies at 1.1343”.