When are the Eurozone flash CPIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone flash CPIs estimate overview

Eurostat will publish the Euro zone's inflation first estimate for November at 10.00GMT today. Consumer prices are expected to accelerate to 1.6% on a yearly basis versus 1.4% seen previously. While the core figures are also expected to edge higher to 1.1% in the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet explains, “From a technical perspective, yesterday's rejection above 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1616-1.1961 suggests some risk to the downside. Weakness back below 1.1835 level would reaffirm the outlook and might now accelerate the slide towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level support near the 1.1800 handle. A convincing break below the mentioned support could extend the corrective slide further towards an important confluence support near the 1.1755 region, comprising of 50-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level.”

“Alternatively, sustained move back above the 1.1900 handle would negate the bearish bias and lift the pair back towards the 1.1930 horizontal resistance. A follow-through up-move now seems to lift the pair beyond Monday's swing high resistance near the 1.1960 level towards reclaiming the key 1.20 psychological mark,” Haresh adds.

Key notes

Eurozone: Core inflation remains subdued – Lloyds Bank

Eurozone ‘core’ inflation, which excludes food and energy, fell unexpectedly to 0.9% in October from 1.1% and was driven primarily by a fall in services inflation to 1.2% from 1.5% as the headline rate fell to 1.4% from 1.5%, explains the research team at Lloyds Bank.

About Eurozone flash CPIs estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).