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Flash: AUD/USD fails below the 200 day moving average at 0.9169 - Commerzbank

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that last week AUD/USD came close to the 200 day moving average and the 2013-2014 resistance line at 0.9169 where we suspect the current up move will falter.

Key Quotes

“As an aside it is possible that what we are seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern which will offer a target of 0.9500, but as patterns do not outweigh downtrends, we look for a move to the long term resistance line only for now.”

“First, though, the area around the 0.9004 3rd of January high should be revisited. Minor support below it comes in around the mid-December peak at 0.8991.”

Flash: AUD fall no surprise - UOB Group

Lee Sue Ann, Market Strategist at UOB Group notes that with China being Australia’s largest trading partner, it was not surprising to see AUD/USD tumbling in reaction to the dismal Chinese trade data over the weekend, which showed a monthly deficit of $22.99bn, marking the first negative reading in 11 months and the largest since February 2012.
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Flash: Go with the stronger AUD - RBS

Paul Robson, Senior FX Strategist at RBS notes that the AUD/USD market is not pricing a rate hike in Australia fully until Jun-2015, and some chance of cuts up to Nov-14.
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