US: Empire State survey likely to print a reading of 19.0 - Nomura

According to analysts at Nomura, incoming survey data from US suggest that continued business expansion, driven by strong domestic demand, may have outweighed increased risk from trade uncertainties.

Key Quotes

“In particular the June ISM manufacturing survey signaled steady business expansion although supply disruptions appear to have worsened in part due to protectionist trade policies. While we think that the July estimate of Empire State index will reflect this ongoing strength, we forecast a reading of 19.0 to reflect potential impact from supply constraints, partly worsened by trade uncertainties. However, this is still an elevated reading, which would be consistent with recent strong readings of new orders and production indices.”