NZ: The week ahead - ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, it’s a light week on the NZ’s data front, but the releases that are out will provide an important steer on the resilience of activity and the demand pulse.

Key Quotes

“We recently revised our GDP forecasts lower, reflecting a weaker outlook for consumption and investment. Businesses’ pessimism appears to be impacting decisions and surveyed investment intentions present downside risk to our current subdued forecast for investment.”

“The ANZ Business Outlook for August will be out on Thursday and will provide a further gauge on how businesses are faring and how expectations and intentions are evolving.”

“Non-residential consents have shown some strength recently, but the outlook now looks less assured and we could see these consents pare back, with Building Consents out on Thursday.”

“Once the recent strength in residential consents flows through into activity, residential investment is no longer expected to contribute to growth. As such, we may see a stabilisation in residential consents.”

“With the construction industry grappling with capacity constraints and financial strains, we expect activity will struggle to push higher. Indeed, residential construction intentions suggest a softening is possible in coming months.” 

“ANZ Consumer Confidence will be out on Friday, with confidence having slipped to average levels last month. Households are constrained and improvements in the labour market will be difficult to come by from here. In light of this, household consumption growth is likely to remain contained – subsiding as population growth wanes.”