Global Q3 GDP data point to a slowdown in second half of 2018 - NAB

According to analysts at NAB, while global growth remains above average, GDP data for Q3 point to a slowdown in the second half of 2018.

Key Quotes

“Business surveys also indicate a slowdown is underway, particularly in manufacturing. The divergence in growth rates between the major economies that emerged in the first half of 2018 has carried over into Q3 - the US economy posted another strong result, while Euro-zone growth slowed noticeably and Japan’s economy went backwards (partly reflecting temporary factors).”

“Growth in the major emerging market economies also likely slowed in the quarter. Financial market volatility has also lifted with large falls in equity markets.”

“We expect above average global growth in 2018 at 3.7%, slowing to 3.6% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020 (the long-term historical average). This expected slowdown is driven by advanced economies as US fiscal stimulus fades, monetary policy tightens and supply constraints bite.”

“The US-China trade dispute is a potential headwind to growth; especially if there is further escalation.”