UK: Theresa May under pressure? – Nordea Markets

According to Andreas Steno Larsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, a tough week for Theresa May is coming, as she will have to prepare for the extraordinary Brexit summit on Sunday 25 November without a designated Brexit minister, navigating substantial domestic obstacles in the meanwhile.

Key Quotes

“Should Theresa May ultimately decide to present the draft deal for the House of Commons, she will face an uphill battle gaining a majority.”

“The House of Commons consists of 650 MPs. Of these, the Speaker and his three deputies don’t vote. The Party Sinn Fein don’t vote either (7 seats). That leaves 639 MPs, so if everyone votes, 320 is the benchmark needed for Theresa May. On our guestimate, Theresa May can safely count on 250-270 votes, 91 votes are highly doubtful and leaning against on average, while at least 278 members will surely vote against.”

“In other words there is a very high risk that the deal will not pass parliament, should it be presented. Could the lack of belief in May’s Brexit deal be enough for a majority of the Conservative MPs to vote against Theresa May in the vote of confidence called by the leader of the hardliner European Research Group, Jacob Rees Mogg?”