US: Further signs of a manufacturing slowdown – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the manufacturing weakness in the US looks to be carrying over into 2019 based on the regional Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

Key Quotes

“It fell to 3.9 in January, down sharply from 11.5 in December, but consistent with the recent sharp decline in the broader national ISM manufacturing PMI. The weakness was evident in both the current conditions and the forward-looking expected conditions indices.”

“The weakness in manufacturing poses downside risks to our growth outlook for 2019, where we expect quarterly momentum to slow from the 3-4% annualised pace of recent quarters to a 2-2.5% pace over the next few quarters – levels that are just above trend (c.1.8%).”