US: Q1 GDP likely to advance 2.3% q/q - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities expect the US GDP to advance 2.3% q/q saar in Q1, largely keeping with the economy’s Q4 pace.

Key Quotes

“Despite a notable slowdown in consumer spending, we anticipate an offsetting shift from negative to positive contributions for net exports and government spending. Indeed, we expect the contribution to growth by private consumption to be around half of what it was in Q4 2018.”

“Notably, and reflecting the recent pick-up in the housing sector, residential investment likely contributed positively to growth for the first time since 2017. All in, a more solid Q1 print suggests less impetus for a particularly large bounce back reflected in the Q2 GDP print.”