Canada: Downside GDP surprise – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Canada’s industry-level GDP fell by 0.1% in February on a contraction in both goods (-0.2%) and services (-0.1%), missing the market consensus for a flat print.

Key Quotes

“Details showed a large drag from resources and rail transport which reflected a 60% drop in crude shipments by rail.”

“We are tracking Q1 growth around 0.6%, slightly above Bank of Canada projections, and don't think the BoC will put much stock in one soft print considering their already-conservative forecasts.”

“The miss helped USDCAD to consolidate near the intraday lows, but we note that the pair still trades at a bit of premium. The broad USD should set the tone over the coming sessions - and the Fed and US data will drive next move in broad USD.”