US: Still a solid rate of employment growth – Rabobank

Rabobank analysts point out that on Friday, the US Employment Report had only a minor impact on markets with Nonfarm payroll growth slowing down to 164,000 in July, from 193,000 in June (revised downward from 224,000).

Key Quotes

“This is still a solid rate of employment growth and enough to absorb the inflow to the labor market. In fact, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%.”

“Average hourly earnings growth rose modestly to 3.2% from 3.1% in year-on-year terms. This is a wage growth rate that the Fed back in 2015 imagined at the start of the hiking cycle, rather than after the end of the cycle. As such, it is likely not seen as insufficient to boost inflation back to the Fed’s target.”

“As far as the sustained inflation undershoot is one of the reasons to cut the policy rate, the average hourly earnings support the case for an additional insurance cut.”