EUR/USD: More downside? – Commerzbank

In view of Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD’s recent failure at the October and November highs at 1.1175/80 has taken it back to the 1.1116/01 December 4 high and December 13 low.

Key Quotes

“The next lower 1.1097 November 21 high and 55 day moving average at 1.1071 may soon also be tested. Much further down lies the December 6 low at 1.1040. Above the 1.1175/80 area remains the current December peak at 1.1200.”

“Further up the 55 week moving average can be spotted at 1.1208 and the August peak at 1.1249. Still higher up meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.1358 which remains in focus for the weeks to come. It represents a critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective.”

“Failure at 1.0981 would target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0943. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low. If revisited, we would look for signs of reversal from there.”