US: USD likes Trump’s prospects – TDS

Besides the coronavirus, the other major theme falls to the US election. The divided Democratic convention alongside Trump’s rating of approval have weighed on the US dollar strength, analysts TD Securities apprise.

Key quotes

“Recall that while Iowa and New Hampshire attract much attention, they account for roughly 2% of the delegate count. Super Tuesday, on the other hand, accounts for nearly a third of the delegates.”

“While Bernie's chance of securing the nomination has been rising, Bloomberg odds have been on the rise too. There's now a better than even chance of a brokered Democratic convention. The result has been a perky USD, reflecting the reduced odds of a progressive shift in public policy.” 

“The USD has closely tracked Trump's approval ratings despite the rhetoric on a weak USD policy. We continue to like the USD higher in the short-run but flag the risk to US equities if Bernie makes a good showing over the next few weeks.”