Base Metals: Prices may not recover with other risk assets – TDS

With prices significantly lower, markets have at least partially accounted for this demand shock. Strategists at TD Securities analyze is the base metals market has discounted the depth of the problem.

Key quotes

“We find that base metal prices have already accurately discounted the hit to commodity demand thus far observed, with base metals posting returns largely in line with expectations.”

“We find that base metal betas to pandemic sentiment are quite low in our cross-asset framework, suggesting that the metals are more likely to be driven by commodity demand than risk sentiment.”

“If prices have fully discounted the deterioration in demand, the onus is placed on the ongoing containment measures and suggests that metal prices may not recover with other risk assets in response to the easing of our fear gauge.”