Dollar Index: 2008/09 parallels point to sustained USD strength – Westpac

Late-2008/2009 offers a highly relevant historical analogue for the near term USD outlook, Richard Franulovich from Westpac Institutional Bank reports.

Key quotes

“The parallels with recent USD price action are obvious; the DXY squeezed 9% higher over a more compressed two week period by 20th March, only to give back roughly half those gains by month’s end, reflecting broad global policy relief and an easing in USD-funding scarcity.”

“But if late 2008/2009 is any guide the USD is likely to stabilise soon and resume a broadly strong tone. Back in 2008/09, once the initial USD squeeze and partial reversal were complete, the USD subsequently regained its footing and held solid well into mid-2009.” 

“If that scenario plays out again in 2020 that would imply currencies are on the cusp of once again broadly track in line with their sensitivity to risk aversion.”