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4 Jul 2014
Fed's forward guidance to be revised? - BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, explains the recent US labour market results.
Key Quotes
"But we may be very close to even Chair Yellen admitting that the Fed’s current forward guidance may need to be reviewed. Looking at the Fed statement from 18th June, the FOMC states that “the unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated” and that labour market conditions “will continue to improve gradually”."
"The Fed added that risks to the economy and jobs market were “evenly balanced” going on to conclude that too low inflation could pose risks to economic performance and that it was monitoring inflation closely “for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective”. These key elements of the statement are looking increasingly detached from reality."
"The 6-month average non-farm payroll gain was 231k in H1 2014, the strongest since before the financial crisis and up from 185k in H2 2013. Every sector reported in yesterday report recorded positive jobs growth underlining the broadening of the recovery. The unemployment rate at 6.1%, is now down 1.4 percentage points in the last twelve months, the largest drop since October 1984."
Key Quotes
"But we may be very close to even Chair Yellen admitting that the Fed’s current forward guidance may need to be reviewed. Looking at the Fed statement from 18th June, the FOMC states that “the unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated” and that labour market conditions “will continue to improve gradually”."
"The Fed added that risks to the economy and jobs market were “evenly balanced” going on to conclude that too low inflation could pose risks to economic performance and that it was monitoring inflation closely “for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective”. These key elements of the statement are looking increasingly detached from reality."
"The 6-month average non-farm payroll gain was 231k in H1 2014, the strongest since before the financial crisis and up from 185k in H2 2013. Every sector reported in yesterday report recorded positive jobs growth underlining the broadening of the recovery. The unemployment rate at 6.1%, is now down 1.4 percentage points in the last twelve months, the largest drop since October 1984."