Canadian Employment Preview: Forecast from five major banks for February jobs report

Canada is set to report an increase in jobs in February, after losing 212,800 positions in January. Here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of five major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Ahead of the data due out at 13:30 GMT, USD/CAD is hovering above 1.2550 after the Bank of Canada left its policy unchanged earlier in the year. 

See – USD/CAD: Current account to narrow further this year, supporting the loonie – CIBC

TDS

“We look for job growth of 150K in February as the rollback of emergency measures across Eastern Canada facilitates a rebound for industries heavily affected by recent lockdowns. Part-time employment should lead job growth which will translate into more modest growth in hours worked, while the unemployment rate should drift lower to 9.0% (on higher participation).”

NBF

“We are calling for just a 25K expansion of payrolls. This gain should keep the unemployment rate steady at 9.4%.”

BBH

“A 100K gain is expected vs. -212.8K in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall a couple of ticks to 9.2%. Like the US, Canada saw a loss of momentum in the economy going into year-end. Jobs fell in both December and January, and so a gain in February would be welcome. Yet the vaccine rollout in Canada has lagged even the laggards in Europe and so regaining that momentum will be all the more difficult. We expect fiscal policy to carry the burden of stimulus in 2021.”

CIBC

“The Canadian economy still required many restrictions to keep the pandemic under control in February, but there was an easing in the overall stringency relative to January. As a result, we’re looking for employment to have bounced higher off of the second-wave lows during the month and expect job growth of 60K. The lesson learned from the reopening following the first wave was that jobs can return very soon after the virus is subdued enough to allow restrictions to be scaled back.”

RBC Economics

“We expect roughly 75K jobs returned in February after January’s 213K plunge as the gradual easing in containment measures allowed for a partial recovery in retail employment after a 100k+ pull-back in January when stores in much of the country were closed to in-store purchases.”