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8 Aug 2014
RBA, BoJ, China trade eyed - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the day ahead, highlighting the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, China trade balance and the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Key Quotes
The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. The RBA Board’s almost unchanged statement on Tue and very neutral tone limits the potential for market-moving headlines. Yesterday’s July jobs clanger might be included in a runthrough of data but not attract any specific ‘spin’. The key forecasts shouldn’t change much, including the 2.75-3.75% forecast for 2015 GDP and 2.75% for 2014, though the latter is perhaps a touch conservative. Inflation should be seen still at 2.5% for 2014. Commentary on AUD will be noted as always, with some variation on Governor Stevens’ recent statements likely. In May, the RBA said “With resource prices and therefore the terms of trade expected to decline further, historical relationships suggest that the exchange rate could move lower over time.”
The Asian data highlight is China’s July trade data (likely 12pm Syd/10am local but often delayed). Consensus is for export growth to hold around 7% y/y, imports growth to slow to 2.6% y/y, leaving the trade surplus at a still substantial $27.4bn. China releases July CPI data on Saturday.
The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy unchanged today but there should be some interest in Governor Kuroda’s press conference at 4:30pm Syd/2:30pm Sing/HK. We view the Japanese economy rather more dimly than the BoJ appears to, so we don’t expect any hints of further policy action. This is probably neutral for USD/JPY but with small downside risks, especially given the global risk averse mood. In the US we see Q2 unit labor costs and in Canada, July employment.
Key Quotes
The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. The RBA Board’s almost unchanged statement on Tue and very neutral tone limits the potential for market-moving headlines. Yesterday’s July jobs clanger might be included in a runthrough of data but not attract any specific ‘spin’. The key forecasts shouldn’t change much, including the 2.75-3.75% forecast for 2015 GDP and 2.75% for 2014, though the latter is perhaps a touch conservative. Inflation should be seen still at 2.5% for 2014. Commentary on AUD will be noted as always, with some variation on Governor Stevens’ recent statements likely. In May, the RBA said “With resource prices and therefore the terms of trade expected to decline further, historical relationships suggest that the exchange rate could move lower over time.”
The Asian data highlight is China’s July trade data (likely 12pm Syd/10am local but often delayed). Consensus is for export growth to hold around 7% y/y, imports growth to slow to 2.6% y/y, leaving the trade surplus at a still substantial $27.4bn. China releases July CPI data on Saturday.
The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy unchanged today but there should be some interest in Governor Kuroda’s press conference at 4:30pm Syd/2:30pm Sing/HK. We view the Japanese economy rather more dimly than the BoJ appears to, so we don’t expect any hints of further policy action. This is probably neutral for USD/JPY but with small downside risks, especially given the global risk averse mood. In the US we see Q2 unit labor costs and in Canada, July employment.