EUR/USD: Sharper squeeze unlikely prior to ECB’s June meeting – Westpac

European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish highlighting of an early end of NIRP have been accompanied by overt references to unfavourable EUR weakness. Further consolidation is likely into the June ECB meeting, economists at Westpac report.

More consolidation seems likely

“ECB has increased its rhetoric around more proactive policy tightening to be detailed at their 9th June General Council meeting with its updated staff projections. It is clear that the ECB’s core is now more hawkish, but the past week has also seen calls for gradual policy adjustments from more dovish ECB members, who may also be concerned about growth downgrades and the widening of bond spreads, euphemistically referred to as fragmentation.”

“EUR/USD has rebounded from forays below 1.05 and more consolidation seems likely, with a sharper squeeze unlikely prior to the ECB’s 9th June meeting.”